Full Analysis Report for Data Percentage: 10.00%¶

This report summarizes all experiments conducted for this specific data percentage.

Assets Tested: btc, eth

Epochs per Experiment: 10

Stop Loss Setting: 0.003

Asset: BTC¶

Model: GRU¶

Stop Loss: 0.300%

Duration: 983.46 seconds

Console Output:¶

Loading data for asset: btc

Subsetting data...

Total data values in intersection: 6283462

Number of data points to use: 628346

Start of subset: 2012-01-31 10:45:00+00:00

End of subset: 2014-02-06 14:02:00+00:00

Data subset shape: (628346, 44), (628346,)

Normalizing features...

Creating sequences...

Total sequences: 628316

Splitting data into training and testing sets...

Train size: (502652, 30, 40), Test size: (125664, 30, 40)

Building model...

Training model...

Epoch 1/10

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Epoch 1: val_loss improved from inf to 414066.43750, saving model to models\gru_btc_model_10pct.h5

15708/15708 [==============================] - 97s 6ms/step - loss: 730.5605 - val_loss: 414066.4375

Epoch 2/10

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Epoch 2: val_loss improved from 414066.43750 to 396212.09375, saving model to models\gru_btc_model_10pct.h5

15708/15708 [==============================] - 93s 6ms/step - loss: 42.9841 - val_loss: 396212.0938

Epoch 3/10

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Epoch 3: val_loss improved from 396212.09375 to 394656.50000, saving model to models\gru_btc_model_10pct.h5

15708/15708 [==============================] - 95s 6ms/step - loss: 39.5033 - val_loss: 394656.5000

Epoch 4/10

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Epoch 4: val_loss improved from 394656.50000 to 387914.15625, saving model to models\gru_btc_model_10pct.h5

15708/15708 [==============================] - 95s 6ms/step - loss: 37.1995 - val_loss: 387914.1562

Epoch 5/10

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Epoch 5: val_loss improved from 387914.15625 to 386603.90625, saving model to models\gru_btc_model_10pct.h5

15708/15708 [==============================] - 93s 6ms/step - loss: 35.0819 - val_loss: 386603.9062

Epoch 6/10

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Epoch 6: val_loss did not improve from 386603.90625

15708/15708 [==============================] - 92s 6ms/step - loss: 33.4574 - val_loss: 387242.3750

Epoch 7/10

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Epoch 7: val_loss did not improve from 386603.90625

15708/15708 [==============================] - 92s 6ms/step - loss: 31.8063 - val_loss: 388671.9062

Epoch 8/10

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15708/15708 [==============================] - ETA: 0s - loss: 30.1544

Epoch 8: val_loss did not improve from 386603.90625

15708/15708 [==============================] - 95s 6ms/step - loss: 30.1544 - val_loss: 387057.0000

Epoch 9/10

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15708/15708 [==============================] - ETA: 0s - loss: 28.7311

Epoch 9: val_loss improved from 386603.90625 to 376639.28125, saving model to models\gru_btc_model_10pct.h5

15708/15708 [==============================] - 94s 6ms/step - loss: 28.7311 - val_loss: 376639.2812

Epoch 10/10

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Epoch 10: val_loss improved from 376639.28125 to 375655.93750, saving model to models\gru_btc_model_10pct.h5

15708/15708 [==============================] - 95s 6ms/step - loss: 27.5982 - val_loss: 375655.9375

Plotting training loss...

Loss curve saved to: plots\loss_curve_gru_btc_10pct.png

Generating predictions on test set...

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3927/3927 [==============================] - 9s 2ms/step

Predictions shape: (125664, 1)

Plotting predictions and saving comparison CSV...

Prediction plot saved to: plots\prediction_plot_gru_btc_10pct.png

Comparison CSV saved to: model-result-data\gru_btc_10pct_comparison.csv

Printing evaluation metrics...

10.0% | acc 0.3445  prec 0.3963  rec 0.3340  f1 0.2722  mse 375655.9211  rmse 612.9078  mae 579.9305

Saving model and scaler...

Model saved to: models\gru_btc_model_10pct.h5

Scaler saved to: models\gru_btc_scaler_10pct.pkl

Training and prediction complete.

Signal distribution:

Signal

-1    122602

 1      3062

Name: count, dtype: int64

Setting up Backtest object...

Running backtest engine...

Found 3062 +1 signals and 122602 -1 signals in the data.

Start                                     0.0

End                                  125663.0

Duration                             125663.0

Exposure Time [%]                     2.51225

Equity Final [$]                 100721.80129

Equity Peak [$]                  106430.64686

Return [%]                             0.7218

Buy & Hold Return [%]               154.68941

Return (Ann.) [%]                         0.0

Volatility (Ann.) [%]                     NaN

Sharpe Ratio                              NaN

Sortino Ratio                             NaN

Calmar Ratio                              0.0

Alpha [%]                            -1.90892

Beta                                  0.01701

Max. Drawdown [%]                    -9.99458

Avg. Drawdown [%]                    -2.28873

Max. Drawdown Duration               124381.0

Avg. Drawdown Duration            11421.90909

# Trades                                163.0

Win Rate [%]                         23.92638

Best Trade [%]                       10.81021

Worst Trade [%]                      -2.19439

Avg. Trade [%]                        0.00438

Max. Trade Duration                     694.0

Avg. Trade Duration                  18.76074

Profit Factor                         1.04603

Expectancy [%]                        0.01224

SQN                                   0.04681

Kelly Criterion                      -0.05253

_strategy                 MLStrategy(stop_...

_equity_curve                           Eq...

_trades                        Size  Entry...

dtype: object

Trade Details:

Number of trades:       163

Number of closed trades:163

Number of open trades:  0

Saving backtest plot to HTML...

Backtest stats saved to: results\gru_btc_10pct_0_3stloss\backtest_stats.csv

Full pipeline complete.

Training Loss Plot:¶

Prediction Plot:¶

Metrics CSV:¶

View CSV

Backtest Interactive Chart:¶

If the iframe does not display, please click here to view the HTML.

Backtest Stats:¶

View CSV

Saved Model and Scaler:¶

• Model: View Model

• Scaler: View Scaler

Model: CNN¶

Stop Loss: 0.300%

Duration: 402.13 seconds

Console Output:¶

Loading data for asset: btc

Subsetting data...

Total data values in intersection: 6283462

Number of data points to use: 628346

Start of subset: 2012-01-31 10:45:00+00:00

End of subset: 2014-02-06 14:02:00+00:00

Data subset shape: (628346, 44), (628346,)

Normalizing features...

Creating sequences...

Total sequences: 628316

Splitting data into training and testing sets...

Train size: (502652, 30, 40), Test size: (125664, 30, 40)

Building model...

Training model...

Epoch 1/10

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Epoch 1: val_loss improved from inf to 214.43997, saving model to models\cnn_btc_model_10pct.h5

15708/15708 [==============================] - 47s 3ms/step - loss: 42.1706 - val_loss: 214.4400

Epoch 2/10

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Epoch 2: val_loss improved from 214.43997 to 109.00345, saving model to models\cnn_btc_model_10pct.h5

15708/15708 [==============================] - 45s 3ms/step - loss: 9.1033 - val_loss: 109.0034

Epoch 3/10

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Epoch 3: val_loss improved from 109.00345 to 82.67271, saving model to models\cnn_btc_model_10pct.h5

15708/15708 [==============================] - 45s 3ms/step - loss: 8.6550 - val_loss: 82.6727

Epoch 4/10

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Epoch 4: val_loss did not improve from 82.67271

15708/15708 [==============================] - 46s 3ms/step - loss: 8.1395 - val_loss: 84.9899

Epoch 5/10

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Epoch 5: val_loss did not improve from 82.67271

15708/15708 [==============================] - 45s 3ms/step - loss: 7.5327 - val_loss: 146.8409

Epoch 6/10

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Epoch 6: val_loss did not improve from 82.67271

15708/15708 [==============================] - 43s 3ms/step - loss: 6.6549 - val_loss: 94.7723

Epoch 7/10

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Epoch 7: val_loss did not improve from 82.67271

15708/15708 [==============================] - 44s 3ms/step - loss: 5.7023 - val_loss: 387.9390

Epoch 8/10

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Epoch 8: val_loss did not improve from 82.67271

Restoring model weights from the end of the best epoch: 3.

15708/15708 [==============================] - 45s 3ms/step - loss: 4.8938 - val_loss: 170.7463

Epoch 8: early stopping

Plotting training loss...

Loss curve saved to: plots\loss_curve_cnn_btc_10pct.png

Generating predictions on test set...

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3927/3927 [==============================] - 4s 1ms/step

Predictions shape: (125664, 1)

Plotting predictions and saving comparison CSV...

Prediction plot saved to: plots\prediction_plot_cnn_btc_10pct.png

Comparison CSV saved to: model-result-data\cnn_btc_10pct_comparison.csv

Printing evaluation metrics...

10.0% | acc 0.3497  prec 0.4151  rec 0.3390  f1 0.2761  mse 82.6726  rmse 9.0924  mae 5.3245

Saving model and scaler...

Model saved to: models\cnn_btc_model_10pct.h5

Scaler saved to: models\cnn_btc_scaler_10pct.pkl

Training and prediction complete.

Signal distribution:

Signal

 1    69506

-1    56158

Name: count, dtype: int64

Setting up Backtest object...

Running backtest engine...

Found 69506 +1 signals and 56158 -1 signals in the data.

Start                                     0.0

End                                  125663.0

Duration                             125663.0

Exposure Time [%]                    71.86704

Equity Final [$]               40214546.85685

Equity Peak [$]                44212463.71493

Return [%]                        40114.54686

Buy & Hold Return [%]               154.68941

Return (Ann.) [%]                         0.0

Volatility (Ann.) [%]                     NaN

Sharpe Ratio                              NaN

Sortino Ratio                             NaN

Calmar Ratio                              0.0

Alpha [%]                         40069.68535

Beta                                  0.29001

Max. Drawdown [%]                   -51.44533

Avg. Drawdown [%]                    -0.97682

Max. Drawdown Duration                14992.0

Avg. Drawdown Duration                96.4033

# Trades                              16195.0

Win Rate [%]                         41.67953

Best Trade [%]                       25.06616

Worst Trade [%]                      -3.81025

Avg. Trade [%]                        0.03705

Max. Trade Duration                     820.0

Avg. Trade Duration                   5.16209

Profit Factor                         1.23853

Expectancy [%]                        0.03935

SQN                                   6.94351

Kelly Criterion                       0.02123

_strategy                 MLStrategy(stop_...

_equity_curve                          Equ...

_trades                           Size  En...

dtype: object

Trade Details:

Number of trades:       16195

Number of closed trades:16195

Number of open trades:  0

Saving backtest plot to HTML...

Backtest stats saved to: results\cnn_btc_10pct_0_3stloss\backtest_stats.csv

Full pipeline complete.

Training Loss Plot:¶

Prediction Plot:¶

Metrics CSV:¶

View CSV

Backtest Interactive Chart:¶

If the iframe does not display, please click here to view the HTML.

Backtest Stats:¶

View CSV

Saved Model and Scaler:¶

• Model: View Model

• Scaler: View Scaler

Model: TRANSFORMER¶

Stop Loss: 0.300%

Duration: 1000.81 seconds

Console Output:¶

Loading data for asset: btc

Subsetting data...

Total data values in intersection: 6283462

Number of data points to use: 628346

Start of subset: 2012-01-31 10:45:00+00:00

End of subset: 2014-02-06 14:02:00+00:00

Data subset shape: (628346, 44), (628346,)

Normalizing features...

Creating sequences...

Total sequences: 628316

Splitting data into training and testing sets...

Train size: (502652, 30, 40), Test size: (125664, 30, 40)

Building model...

Building Transformer model with input shape: (30, 40)

Training model...

Epoch 1/10

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Epoch 1: val_loss improved from inf to 133229.70312, saving model to models\transformer_btc_model_10pct.h5

15708/15708 [==============================] - 83s 5ms/step - loss: 86.3076 - val_loss: 133229.7031

Epoch 2/10

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Epoch 2: val_loss improved from 133229.70312 to 126527.67969, saving model to models\transformer_btc_model_10pct.h5

15708/15708 [==============================] - 85s 5ms/step - loss: 3.7139 - val_loss: 126527.6797

Epoch 3/10

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Epoch 3: val_loss improved from 126527.67969 to 124478.00000, saving model to models\transformer_btc_model_10pct.h5

15708/15708 [==============================] - 81s 5ms/step - loss: 3.0659 - val_loss: 124478.0000

Epoch 4/10

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Epoch 4: val_loss did not improve from 124478.00000

15708/15708 [==============================] - 93s 6ms/step - loss: 2.7466 - val_loss: 124786.7109

Epoch 5/10

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Epoch 5: val_loss did not improve from 124478.00000

15708/15708 [==============================] - 128s 8ms/step - loss: 2.4830 - val_loss: 130662.4141

Epoch 6/10

    1/15708 [..............................] - ETA: 1:26 - loss: 4.6658

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Epoch 6: val_loss did not improve from 124478.00000

15708/15708 [==============================] - 169s 11ms/step - loss: 2.3193 - val_loss: 128901.9531

Epoch 7/10

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Epoch 7: val_loss did not improve from 124478.00000

15708/15708 [==============================] - 160s 10ms/step - loss: 2.2138 - val_loss: 133933.1250

Epoch 8/10

    1/15708 [..............................] - ETA: 1:05 - loss: 1.2473

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Epoch 8: val_loss did not improve from 124478.00000

Restoring model weights from the end of the best epoch: 3.

15708/15708 [==============================] - 156s 10ms/step - loss: 2.0403 - val_loss: 135073.7344

Epoch 8: early stopping

Plotting training loss...

Loss curve saved to: plots\loss_curve_transformer_btc_10pct.png

Generating predictions on test set...

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3927/3927 [==============================] - 13s 3ms/step

Predictions shape: (125664, 1)

Plotting predictions and saving comparison CSV...

Prediction plot saved to: plots\prediction_plot_transformer_btc_10pct.png

Comparison CSV saved to: model-result-data\transformer_btc_10pct_comparison.csv

Printing evaluation metrics...

10.0% | acc 0.3445  prec 0.3531  rec 0.3340  f1 0.2724  mse 124478.0180  rmse 352.8144  mae 321.5288

Saving model and scaler...

Model saved to: models\transformer_btc_model_10pct.h5

Scaler saved to: models\transformer_btc_scaler_10pct.pkl

Training and prediction complete.

Signal distribution:

Signal

-1    120008

 1      5656

Name: count, dtype: int64

Setting up Backtest object...

Running backtest engine...

Found 5656 +1 signals and 120008 -1 signals in the data.

Start                                     0.0

End                                  125663.0

Duration                             125663.0

Exposure Time [%]                        4.82

Equity Final [$]                 133183.19139

Equity Peak [$]                  140988.40868

Return [%]                           33.18319

Buy & Hold Return [%]               154.68941

Return (Ann.) [%]                         0.0

Volatility (Ann.) [%]                     NaN

Sharpe Ratio                              NaN

Sortino Ratio                             NaN

Calmar Ratio                              0.0

Alpha [%]                            28.77223

Beta                                  0.02851

Max. Drawdown [%]                    -7.00647

Avg. Drawdown [%]                      -0.951

Max. Drawdown Duration               118237.0

Avg. Drawdown Duration             1019.00813

# Trades                                284.0

Win Rate [%]                         39.43662

Best Trade [%]                       27.81209

Worst Trade [%]                      -1.53887

Avg. Trade [%]                        0.10113

Max. Trade Duration                    4523.0

Avg. Trade Duration                  20.94014

Profit Factor                         1.66113

Expectancy [%]                        0.11478

SQN                                   1.08339

Kelly Criterion                       0.07591

_strategy                 MLStrategy(stop_...

_equity_curve                           Eq...

_trades                        Size  Entry...

dtype: object

Trade Details:

Number of trades:       284

Number of closed trades:284

Number of open trades:  0

Saving backtest plot to HTML...

Backtest stats saved to: results\transformer_btc_10pct_0_3stloss\backtest_stats.csv

Full pipeline complete.

Training Loss Plot:¶

Prediction Plot:¶

Metrics CSV:¶

View CSV

Backtest Interactive Chart:¶

If the iframe does not display, please click here to view the HTML.

Backtest Stats:¶

View CSV

Saved Model and Scaler:¶

• Model: View Model

• Scaler: View Scaler

Model: RNN¶

Stop Loss: 0.300%

Duration: 3302.70 seconds

Console Output:¶

Loading data for asset: btc

Subsetting data...

Total data values in intersection: 6283462

Number of data points to use: 628346

Start of subset: 2012-01-31 10:45:00+00:00

End of subset: 2014-02-06 14:02:00+00:00

Data subset shape: (628346, 44), (628346,)

Normalizing features...

Creating sequences...

Total sequences: 628316

Splitting data into training and testing sets...

Train size: (502652, 30, 40), Test size: (125664, 30, 40)

Building model...

Building RNN model with input shape: (30, 40)

Training model...

Epoch 1/10

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Epoch 1: val_loss improved from inf to 246716.71875, saving model to models\rnn_btc_model_10pct.h5

15708/15708 [==============================] - 609s 39ms/step - loss: 1032.7622 - val_loss: 246716.7188

Epoch 2/10

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Epoch 2: val_loss improved from 246716.71875 to 208575.85938, saving model to models\rnn_btc_model_10pct.h5

15708/15708 [==============================] - 317s 20ms/step - loss: 48.3606 - val_loss: 208575.8594

Epoch 3/10

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Epoch 3: val_loss improved from 208575.85938 to 199786.28125, saving model to models\rnn_btc_model_10pct.h5

15708/15708 [==============================] - 291s 18ms/step - loss: 41.2958 - val_loss: 199786.2812

Epoch 4/10

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Epoch 4: val_loss improved from 199786.28125 to 192603.00000, saving model to models\rnn_btc_model_10pct.h5

15708/15708 [==============================] - 288s 18ms/step - loss: 38.8925 - val_loss: 192603.0000

Epoch 5/10

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Epoch 5: val_loss improved from 192603.00000 to 190301.29688, saving model to models\rnn_btc_model_10pct.h5

15708/15708 [==============================] - 288s 18ms/step - loss: 36.5343 - val_loss: 190301.2969

Epoch 6/10

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15708/15708 [==============================] - ETA: 0s - loss: 34.9322

Epoch 6: val_loss did not improve from 190301.29688

15708/15708 [==============================] - 288s 18ms/step - loss: 34.9322 - val_loss: 190512.3906

Epoch 7/10

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Epoch 7: val_loss improved from 190301.29688 to 187719.87500, saving model to models\rnn_btc_model_10pct.h5

15708/15708 [==============================] - 290s 18ms/step - loss: 33.0718 - val_loss: 187719.8750

Epoch 8/10

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Epoch 8: val_loss improved from 187719.87500 to 184386.53125, saving model to models\rnn_btc_model_10pct.h5

15708/15708 [==============================] - 293s 19ms/step - loss: 31.6499 - val_loss: 184386.5312

Epoch 9/10

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Epoch 9: val_loss improved from 184386.53125 to 183425.26562, saving model to models\rnn_btc_model_10pct.h5

15708/15708 [==============================] - 295s 19ms/step - loss: 30.3376 - val_loss: 183425.2656

Epoch 10/10

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Epoch 10: val_loss improved from 183425.26562 to 182283.40625, saving model to models\rnn_btc_model_10pct.h5

15708/15708 [==============================] - 294s 19ms/step - loss: 28.9161 - val_loss: 182283.4062

Plotting training loss...

Loss curve saved to: plots\loss_curve_rnn_btc_10pct.png

Generating predictions on test set...

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Predictions shape: (125664, 1)

Plotting predictions and saving comparison CSV...

Prediction plot saved to: plots\prediction_plot_rnn_btc_10pct.png

Comparison CSV saved to: model-result-data\rnn_btc_10pct_comparison.csv

Printing evaluation metrics...

10.0% | acc 0.3471  prec 0.3922  rec 0.3366  f1 0.2740  mse 182283.1949  rmse 426.9464  mae 395.1563

Saving model and scaler...

Model saved to: models\rnn_btc_model_10pct.h5

Scaler saved to: models\rnn_btc_scaler_10pct.pkl

Training and prediction complete.

Signal distribution:

Signal

-1    125609

 1        55

Name: count, dtype: int64

Setting up Backtest object...

Running backtest engine...

Found 55 +1 signals and 125609 -1 signals in the data.

Start                                     0.0

End                                  125663.0

Duration                             125663.0

Exposure Time [%]                     0.23157

Equity Final [$]                 104914.29707

Equity Peak [$]                  107065.29592

Return [%]                             4.9143

Buy & Hold Return [%]               154.68941

Return (Ann.) [%]                         0.0

Volatility (Ann.) [%]                     NaN

Sharpe Ratio                              NaN

Sortino Ratio                             NaN

Calmar Ratio                              0.0

Alpha [%]                             5.04606

Beta                                 -0.00085

Max. Drawdown [%]                    -6.68851

Avg. Drawdown [%]                    -1.67874

Max. Drawdown Duration               124813.0

Avg. Drawdown Duration                17945.0

# Trades                                 77.0

Win Rate [%]                         37.66234

Best Trade [%]                        2.08755

Worst Trade [%]                      -1.23697

Avg. Trade [%]                        0.06253

Max. Trade Duration                      30.0

Avg. Trade Duration                   3.38961

Profit Factor                         1.30387

Expectancy [%]                        0.06494

SQN                                   0.78664

Kelly Criterion                       0.04322

_strategy                 MLStrategy(stop_...

_equity_curve                           Eq...

_trades                       Size  EntryB...

dtype: object

Trade Details:

Number of trades:       77

Number of closed trades:77

Number of open trades:  0

Saving backtest plot to HTML...

Backtest stats saved to: results\rnn_btc_10pct_0_3stloss\backtest_stats.csv

Full pipeline complete.

Training Loss Plot:¶

Prediction Plot:¶

Metrics CSV:¶

View CSV

Backtest Interactive Chart:¶

If the iframe does not display, please click here to view the HTML.

Backtest Stats:¶

View CSV

Saved Model and Scaler:¶

• Model: View Model

• Scaler: View Scaler

Asset: ETH¶

Model: GRU¶

Stop Loss: 0.300%

Duration: 195.73 seconds

Console Output:¶

Loading data for asset: eth

Subsetting data...

Total data values in intersection: 1394591

Number of data points to use: 139459

Start of subset: 2016-05-09 17:31:00+00:00

End of subset: 2017-04-02 12:41:00+00:00

Data subset shape: (139459, 44), (139459,)

Normalizing features...

Creating sequences...

Total sequences: 139429

Splitting data into training and testing sets...

Train size: (111543, 30, 40), Test size: (27886, 30, 40)

Building model...

Training model...

Epoch 1/10

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Epoch 1: val_loss improved from inf to 469.00433, saving model to models\gru_eth_model_10pct.h5

3486/3486 [==============================] - 20s 5ms/step - loss: 2.5298 - val_loss: 469.0043

Epoch 2/10

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Epoch 2: val_loss improved from 469.00433 to 399.38107, saving model to models\gru_eth_model_10pct.h5

3486/3486 [==============================] - 19s 5ms/step - loss: 0.6505 - val_loss: 399.3811

Epoch 3/10

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Epoch 3: val_loss improved from 399.38107 to 381.98218, saving model to models\gru_eth_model_10pct.h5

3486/3486 [==============================] - 19s 5ms/step - loss: 0.5760 - val_loss: 381.9822

Epoch 4/10

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Epoch 4: val_loss improved from 381.98218 to 369.05045, saving model to models\gru_eth_model_10pct.h5

3486/3486 [==============================] - 18s 5ms/step - loss: 0.4941 - val_loss: 369.0504

Epoch 5/10

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Epoch 5: val_loss improved from 369.05045 to 352.76071, saving model to models\gru_eth_model_10pct.h5

3486/3486 [==============================] - 18s 5ms/step - loss: 0.4246 - val_loss: 352.7607

Epoch 6/10

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Epoch 6: val_loss improved from 352.76071 to 331.52438, saving model to models\gru_eth_model_10pct.h5

3486/3486 [==============================] - 18s 5ms/step - loss: 0.3625 - val_loss: 331.5244

Epoch 7/10

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Epoch 7: val_loss improved from 331.52438 to 322.37610, saving model to models\gru_eth_model_10pct.h5

3486/3486 [==============================] - 19s 5ms/step - loss: 0.3098 - val_loss: 322.3761

Epoch 8/10

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Epoch 8: val_loss improved from 322.37610 to 304.03232, saving model to models\gru_eth_model_10pct.h5

3486/3486 [==============================] - 19s 5ms/step - loss: 0.2589 - val_loss: 304.0323

Epoch 9/10

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Epoch 9: val_loss improved from 304.03232 to 293.42041, saving model to models\gru_eth_model_10pct.h5

3486/3486 [==============================] - 18s 5ms/step - loss: 0.2193 - val_loss: 293.4204

Epoch 10/10

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Epoch 10: val_loss improved from 293.42041 to 275.15674, saving model to models\gru_eth_model_10pct.h5

3486/3486 [==============================] - 18s 5ms/step - loss: 0.1820 - val_loss: 275.1567

Plotting training loss...

Loss curve saved to: plots\loss_curve_gru_eth_10pct.png

Generating predictions on test set...

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872/872 [==============================] - 2s 2ms/step

Predictions shape: (27886, 1)

Plotting predictions and saving comparison CSV...

Prediction plot saved to: plots\prediction_plot_gru_eth_10pct.png

Comparison CSV saved to: model-result-data\gru_eth_10pct_comparison.csv

Printing evaluation metrics...

10.0% | acc 0.1469  prec 0.4311  rec 0.3392  f1 0.1517  mse 275.1566  rmse 16.5878  mae 14.6029

Saving model and scaler...

Model saved to: models\gru_eth_model_10pct.h5

Scaler saved to: models\gru_eth_scaler_10pct.pkl

Training and prediction complete.

Signal distribution:

Signal

-1    27823

 1       63

Name: count, dtype: int64

Setting up Backtest object...

Running backtest engine...

Found 63 +1 signals and 27823 -1 signals in the data.

Start                                     0.0

End                                   27885.0

Duration                              27885.0

Exposure Time [%]                     1.43083

Equity Final [$]                 139113.67519

Equity Peak [$]                  139595.95989

Return [%]                           39.11368

Buy & Hold Return [%]               171.50596

Return (Ann.) [%]                         0.0

Volatility (Ann.) [%]                     NaN

Sharpe Ratio                              NaN

Sortino Ratio                             NaN

Calmar Ratio                              0.0

Alpha [%]                            37.89073

Beta                                  0.00713

Max. Drawdown [%]                    -3.29306

Avg. Drawdown [%]                    -0.59365

Max. Drawdown Duration                25761.0

Avg. Drawdown Duration             1629.29412

# Trades                                 62.0

Win Rate [%]                          51.6129

Best Trade [%]                        5.99637

Worst Trade [%]                      -3.21351

Avg. Trade [%]                        0.53392

Max. Trade Duration                      38.0

Avg. Trade Duration                   5.98387

Profit Factor                         3.95348

Expectancy [%]                         0.5422

SQN                                   3.48122

Kelly Criterion                        0.3825

_strategy                 MLStrategy(stop_...

_equity_curve                          Equ...

_trades                       Size  EntryB...

dtype: object

Trade Details:

Number of trades:       62

Number of closed trades:62

Number of open trades:  0

Saving backtest plot to HTML...

Backtest stats saved to: results\gru_eth_10pct_0_3stloss\backtest_stats.csv

Full pipeline complete.

Training Loss Plot:¶

Prediction Plot:¶

Metrics CSV:¶

View CSV

Backtest Interactive Chart:¶

If the iframe does not display, please click here to view the HTML.

Backtest Stats:¶

View CSV

Saved Model and Scaler:¶

• Model: View Model

• Scaler: View Scaler

Model: CNN¶

Stop Loss: 0.300%

Duration: 88.77 seconds

Console Output:¶

Loading data for asset: eth

Subsetting data...

Total data values in intersection: 1394591

Number of data points to use: 139459

Start of subset: 2016-05-09 17:31:00+00:00

End of subset: 2017-04-02 12:41:00+00:00

Data subset shape: (139459, 44), (139459,)

Normalizing features...

Creating sequences...

Total sequences: 139429

Splitting data into training and testing sets...

Train size: (111543, 30, 40), Test size: (27886, 30, 40)

Building model...

Training model...

Epoch 1/10

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Epoch 1: val_loss improved from inf to 0.28212, saving model to models\cnn_eth_model_10pct.h5

3486/3486 [==============================] - 9s 3ms/step - loss: 0.7260 - val_loss: 0.2821

Epoch 2/10

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Epoch 2: val_loss improved from 0.28212 to 0.20119, saving model to models\cnn_eth_model_10pct.h5

3486/3486 [==============================] - 9s 3ms/step - loss: 0.1710 - val_loss: 0.2012

Epoch 3/10

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Epoch 3: val_loss did not improve from 0.20119

3486/3486 [==============================] - 9s 3ms/step - loss: 0.1463 - val_loss: 0.2275

Epoch 4/10

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Epoch 4: val_loss improved from 0.20119 to 0.18912, saving model to models\cnn_eth_model_10pct.h5

3486/3486 [==============================] - 9s 3ms/step - loss: 0.1243 - val_loss: 0.1891

Epoch 5/10

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Epoch 5: val_loss did not improve from 0.18912

3486/3486 [==============================] - 9s 3ms/step - loss: 0.1024 - val_loss: 0.2960

Epoch 6/10

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Epoch 6: val_loss did not improve from 0.18912

3486/3486 [==============================] - 9s 3ms/step - loss: 0.0750 - val_loss: 0.1938

Epoch 7/10

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Epoch 7: val_loss did not improve from 0.18912

3486/3486 [==============================] - 9s 2ms/step - loss: 0.0585 - val_loss: 0.3067

Epoch 8/10

   1/3486 [..............................] - ETA: 10s - loss: 0.0708

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Epoch 8: val_loss did not improve from 0.18912

3486/3486 [==============================] - 9s 3ms/step - loss: 0.0529 - val_loss: 0.9000

Epoch 9/10

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Epoch 9: val_loss did not improve from 0.18912

Restoring model weights from the end of the best epoch: 4.

3486/3486 [==============================] - 9s 3ms/step - loss: 0.0486 - val_loss: 0.3067

Epoch 9: early stopping

Plotting training loss...

Loss curve saved to: plots\loss_curve_cnn_eth_10pct.png

Generating predictions on test set...

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872/872 [==============================] - 1s 1ms/step

Predictions shape: (27886, 1)

Plotting predictions and saving comparison CSV...

Prediction plot saved to: plots\prediction_plot_cnn_eth_10pct.png

Comparison CSV saved to: model-result-data\cnn_eth_10pct_comparison.csv

Printing evaluation metrics...

10.0% | acc 0.1450  prec 0.0967  rec 0.3351  f1 0.1500  mse 0.1891  rmse 0.4349  mae 0.2635

Saving model and scaler...

Model saved to: models\cnn_eth_model_10pct.h5

Scaler saved to: models\cnn_eth_scaler_10pct.pkl

Training and prediction complete.

Signal distribution:

Signal

-1    17105

 1    10781

Name: count, dtype: int64

Setting up Backtest object...

Running backtest engine...

Found 10781 +1 signals and 17105 -1 signals in the data.

Start                                     0.0

End                                   27885.0

Duration                              27885.0

Exposure Time [%]                    71.86043

Equity Final [$]             9483023855.55788

Equity Peak [$]              9483023855.55788

Return [%]                      9482923.85556

Buy & Hold Return [%]               171.50596

Return (Ann.) [%]                         0.0

Volatility (Ann.) [%]                     NaN

Sharpe Ratio                              NaN

Sortino Ratio                             NaN

Calmar Ratio                              0.0

Alpha [%]                       9482891.32138

Beta                                   0.1897

Max. Drawdown [%]                    -7.03422

Avg. Drawdown [%]                    -0.57768

Max. Drawdown Duration                  662.0

Avg. Drawdown Duration               29.66313

# Trades                               3225.0

Win Rate [%]                         51.47287

Best Trade [%]                       13.55894

Worst Trade [%]                      -1.28231

Avg. Trade [%]                        0.35598

Max. Trade Duration                     111.0

Avg. Trade Duration                   5.83039

Profit Factor                          3.9426

Expectancy [%]                        0.36073

SQN                                   10.5867

Kelly Criterion                       0.25698

_strategy                 MLStrategy(stop_...

_equity_curve                         Equi...

_trades                              Size ...

dtype: object

Trade Details:

Number of trades:       3225

Number of closed trades:3225

Number of open trades:  0

Saving backtest plot to HTML...

Backtest stats saved to: results\cnn_eth_10pct_0_3stloss\backtest_stats.csv

Full pipeline complete.

Training Loss Plot:¶

Prediction Plot:¶

Metrics CSV:¶

View CSV

Backtest Interactive Chart:¶

If the iframe does not display, please click here to view the HTML.

Backtest Stats:¶

View CSV

Saved Model and Scaler:¶

• Model: View Model

• Scaler: View Scaler

Model: TRANSFORMER¶

Stop Loss: 0.300%

Duration: 135.72 seconds

Console Output:¶

Loading data for asset: eth

Subsetting data...

Total data values in intersection: 1394591

Number of data points to use: 139459

Start of subset: 2016-05-09 17:31:00+00:00

End of subset: 2017-04-02 12:41:00+00:00

Data subset shape: (139459, 44), (139459,)

Normalizing features...

Creating sequences...

Total sequences: 139429

Splitting data into training and testing sets...

Train size: (111543, 30, 40), Test size: (27886, 30, 40)

Building model...

Building Transformer model with input shape: (30, 40)

Training model...

Epoch 1/10

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Epoch 1: val_loss improved from inf to 322.52597, saving model to models\transformer_eth_model_10pct.h5

3486/3486 [==============================] - 16s 5ms/step - loss: 0.8698 - val_loss: 322.5260

Epoch 2/10

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Epoch 2: val_loss improved from 322.52597 to 310.36743, saving model to models\transformer_eth_model_10pct.h5

3486/3486 [==============================] - 16s 4ms/step - loss: 0.0475 - val_loss: 310.3674

Epoch 3/10

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Epoch 3: val_loss improved from 310.36743 to 303.61169, saving model to models\transformer_eth_model_10pct.h5

3486/3486 [==============================] - 16s 5ms/step - loss: 0.0420 - val_loss: 303.6117

Epoch 4/10

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Epoch 4: val_loss did not improve from 303.61169

3486/3486 [==============================] - 16s 5ms/step - loss: 0.0401 - val_loss: 340.5905

Epoch 5/10

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Epoch 5: val_loss did not improve from 303.61169

3486/3486 [==============================] - 16s 5ms/step - loss: 0.0371 - val_loss: 393.0036

Epoch 6/10

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Epoch 6: val_loss did not improve from 303.61169

3486/3486 [==============================] - 16s 5ms/step - loss: 0.0357 - val_loss: 404.1718

Epoch 7/10

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3486/3486 [==============================] - ETA: 0s - loss: 0.0349

Epoch 7: val_loss did not improve from 303.61169

3486/3486 [==============================] - 16s 5ms/step - loss: 0.0349 - val_loss: 425.7373

Epoch 8/10

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Epoch 8: val_loss did not improve from 303.61169

Restoring model weights from the end of the best epoch: 3.

3486/3486 [==============================] - 16s 5ms/step - loss: 0.0332 - val_loss: 454.2259

Epoch 8: early stopping

Plotting training loss...

Loss curve saved to: plots\loss_curve_transformer_eth_10pct.png

Generating predictions on test set...

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872/872 [==============================] - 1s 1ms/step

Predictions shape: (27886, 1)

Plotting predictions and saving comparison CSV...

Prediction plot saved to: plots\prediction_plot_transformer_eth_10pct.png

Comparison CSV saved to: model-result-data\transformer_eth_10pct_comparison.csv

Printing evaluation metrics...

10.0% | acc 0.1472  prec 0.3203  rec 0.3402  f1 0.1523  mse 303.6118  rmse 17.4245  mae 15.2992

Saving model and scaler...

Model saved to: models\transformer_eth_model_10pct.h5

Scaler saved to: models\transformer_eth_scaler_10pct.pkl

Training and prediction complete.

Signal distribution:

Signal

-1    25598

 1     2288

Name: count, dtype: int64

Setting up Backtest object...

Running backtest engine...

Found 2288 +1 signals and 25598 -1 signals in the data.

Start                                     0.0

End                                   27885.0

Duration                              27885.0

Exposure Time [%]                     8.99376

Equity Final [$]                 226204.26012

Equity Peak [$]                  227924.70612

Return [%]                          126.20426

Buy & Hold Return [%]               171.50596

Return (Ann.) [%]                         0.0

Volatility (Ann.) [%]                     NaN

Sharpe Ratio                              NaN

Sortino Ratio                             NaN

Calmar Ratio                              0.0

Alpha [%]                           118.22179

Beta                                  0.04654

Max. Drawdown [%]                      -6.364

Avg. Drawdown [%]                    -1.14023

Max. Drawdown Duration                25314.0

Avg. Drawdown Duration              463.13559

# Trades                                 65.0

Win Rate [%]                         47.69231

Best Trade [%]                       29.61841

Worst Trade [%]                      -1.53453

Avg. Trade [%]                        1.26378

Max. Trade Duration                    1104.0

Avg. Trade Duration                  38.13846

Profit Factor                         9.12517

Expectancy [%]                        1.33374

SQN                                   3.43357

Kelly Criterion                       0.40389

_strategy                 MLStrategy(stop_...

_equity_curve                          Equ...

_trades                       Size  EntryB...

dtype: object

Trade Details:

Number of trades:       65

Number of closed trades:65

Number of open trades:  0

Saving backtest plot to HTML...

Backtest stats saved to: results\transformer_eth_10pct_0_3stloss\backtest_stats.csv

Full pipeline complete.

Training Loss Plot:¶

Prediction Plot:¶

Metrics CSV:¶

View CSV

Backtest Interactive Chart:¶

If the iframe does not display, please click here to view the HTML.

Backtest Stats:¶

View CSV

Saved Model and Scaler:¶

• Model: View Model

• Scaler: View Scaler

Model: RNN¶

Stop Loss: 0.300%

Duration: 657.06 seconds

Console Output:¶

Loading data for asset: eth

Subsetting data...

Total data values in intersection: 1394591

Number of data points to use: 139459

Start of subset: 2016-05-09 17:31:00+00:00

End of subset: 2017-04-02 12:41:00+00:00

Data subset shape: (139459, 44), (139459,)

Normalizing features...

Creating sequences...

Total sequences: 139429

Splitting data into training and testing sets...

Train size: (111543, 30, 40), Test size: (27886, 30, 40)

Building model...

Building RNN model with input shape: (30, 40)

Training model...

Epoch 1/10

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Epoch 1: val_loss improved from inf to 500.41333, saving model to models\rnn_eth_model_10pct.h5

3486/3486 [==============================] - 65s 19ms/step - loss: 2.8189 - val_loss: 500.4133

Epoch 2/10

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3486/3486 [==============================] - ETA: 0s - loss: 0.6929

Epoch 2: val_loss improved from 500.41333 to 447.97556, saving model to models\rnn_eth_model_10pct.h5

3486/3486 [==============================] - 65s 19ms/step - loss: 0.6929 - val_loss: 447.9756

Epoch 3/10

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Epoch 3: val_loss improved from 447.97556 to 416.19836, saving model to models\rnn_eth_model_10pct.h5

3486/3486 [==============================] - 65s 19ms/step - loss: 0.5940 - val_loss: 416.1984

Epoch 4/10

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3486/3486 [==============================] - ETA: 0s - loss: 0.5186

Epoch 4: val_loss improved from 416.19836 to 392.30188, saving model to models\rnn_eth_model_10pct.h5

3486/3486 [==============================] - 65s 19ms/step - loss: 0.5186 - val_loss: 392.3019

Epoch 5/10

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Epoch 5: val_loss improved from 392.30188 to 366.55148, saving model to models\rnn_eth_model_10pct.h5

3486/3486 [==============================] - 66s 19ms/step - loss: 0.4512 - val_loss: 366.5515

Epoch 6/10

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Epoch 6: val_loss improved from 366.55148 to 340.27454, saving model to models\rnn_eth_model_10pct.h5

3486/3486 [==============================] - 64s 18ms/step - loss: 0.3921 - val_loss: 340.2745

Epoch 7/10

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3486/3486 [==============================] - ETA: 0s - loss: 0.3334

Epoch 7: val_loss improved from 340.27454 to 321.66959, saving model to models\rnn_eth_model_10pct.h5

3486/3486 [==============================] - 64s 18ms/step - loss: 0.3334 - val_loss: 321.6696

Epoch 8/10

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Epoch 8: val_loss improved from 321.66959 to 301.86395, saving model to models\rnn_eth_model_10pct.h5

3486/3486 [==============================] - 64s 18ms/step - loss: 0.2819 - val_loss: 301.8640

Epoch 9/10

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Epoch 9: val_loss improved from 301.86395 to 281.93311, saving model to models\rnn_eth_model_10pct.h5

3486/3486 [==============================] - 64s 18ms/step - loss: 0.2413 - val_loss: 281.9331

Epoch 10/10

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Epoch 10: val_loss improved from 281.93311 to 267.27802, saving model to models\rnn_eth_model_10pct.h5

3486/3486 [==============================] - 64s 18ms/step - loss: 0.1997 - val_loss: 267.2780

Plotting training loss...

Loss curve saved to: plots\loss_curve_rnn_eth_10pct.png

Generating predictions on test set...

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872/872 [==============================] - 4s 5ms/step

Predictions shape: (27886, 1)

Plotting predictions and saving comparison CSV...

Prediction plot saved to: plots\prediction_plot_rnn_eth_10pct.png

Comparison CSV saved to: model-result-data\rnn_eth_10pct_comparison.csv

Printing evaluation metrics...

10.0% | acc 0.1443  prec 0.3217  rec 0.3324  f1 0.1494  mse 267.2780  rmse 16.3486  mae 14.2276

Saving model and scaler...

Model saved to: models\rnn_eth_model_10pct.h5

Scaler saved to: models\rnn_eth_scaler_10pct.pkl

Training and prediction complete.

Signal distribution:

Signal

-1    26947

 1      939

Name: count, dtype: int64

Setting up Backtest object...

Running backtest engine...

Found 939 +1 signals and 26947 -1 signals in the data.

Start                                     0.0

End                                   27885.0

Duration                              27885.0

Exposure Time [%]                      4.8519

Equity Final [$]                 232017.55864

Equity Peak [$]                  232821.94684

Return [%]                          132.01756

Buy & Hold Return [%]               171.50596

Return (Ann.) [%]                         0.0

Volatility (Ann.) [%]                     NaN

Sharpe Ratio                              NaN

Sortino Ratio                             NaN

Calmar Ratio                              0.0

Alpha [%]                           130.05624

Beta                                  0.01144

Max. Drawdown [%]                    -2.06425

Avg. Drawdown [%]                     -0.5673

Max. Drawdown Duration                25761.0

Avg. Drawdown Duration              499.49091

# Trades                                203.0

Win Rate [%]                         46.30542

Best Trade [%]                        9.02483

Worst Trade [%]                      -0.97087

Avg. Trade [%]                        0.41549

Max. Trade Duration                      44.0

Avg. Trade Duration                   6.30049

Profit Factor                         4.41906

Expectancy [%]                        0.42167

SQN                                   5.43125

Kelly Criterion                       0.30529

_strategy                 MLStrategy(stop_...

_equity_curve                          Equ...

_trades                         Size  Entr...

dtype: object

Trade Details:

Number of trades:       203

Number of closed trades:203

Number of open trades:  0

Saving backtest plot to HTML...

Backtest stats saved to: results\rnn_eth_10pct_0_3stloss\backtest_stats.csv

Full pipeline complete.

Training Loss Plot:¶

Prediction Plot:¶

Metrics CSV:¶

View CSV

Backtest Interactive Chart:¶

If the iframe does not display, please click here to view the HTML.

Backtest Stats:¶

View CSV

Saved Model and Scaler:¶

• Model: View Model

• Scaler: View Scaler

Total Duration for Data Percentage 10.00%: 6766.45 seconds